Candidate Color Key

Fine
Biss
Abughazaleh
Simmons
Amiwala
Andrew
Huynh

District-Wide Win Probabilities

Candidate Win Prob.
Biss 54.3%
Fine 41.0%
Abughazaleh 4.5%
Simmons 0.1%
Andrew 0.0%
Amiwala 0.0%
Huynh 0.0%

Weighted Poll Average

Candidate Poll Avg
Biss 21.2%
Fine 20.2%
Abughazaleh 14.2%
Simmons 7.1%
Amiwala 4.0%
Andrew 4.0%
Huynh 2.1%

Projected Results

Candidate Vote Share
Biss 27.4%
Fine 26.1%
Abughazaleh 18.3%
Simmons 8.7%
Andrew 5.5%
Amiwala 5.5%
Huynh 3.5%

Simulations Won

Candidate Wins
Biss 543,462
Fine 410,404
Abughazaleh 44,842
Simmons 965
Andrew 133
Amiwala 131
Huynh 29

Out of 1,000,000 simulations

Regional Breakdown - Projected Vote Shares

Chicago (38.7% of district turnout, 119 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Biss 24.3%
Abughazaleh 23.3%
Fine 22.7%
Simmons 12.2%
Amiwala 5.9%
Andrew 5.4%
Huynh 3.3%

Evanston (14.1% of district turnout, 45 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Biss 39.7%
Fine 20.8%
Abughazaleh 16.5%
Simmons 6.0%
Amiwala 5.2%
Andrew 5.1%
Huynh 3.1%

Suburban Cook (not including Evanston) (35.7% of district turnout, 177 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Fine 31.1%
Biss 27.9%
Abughazaleh 15.9%
Simmons 7.5%
Andrew 5.5%
Amiwala 5.4%
Huynh 3.5%

Lake County (5.6% of district turnout, 32 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Fine 34.6%
Biss 26.2%
Abughazaleh 14.5%
Simmons 6.7%
Amiwala 5.8%
Andrew 5.6%
Huynh 3.5%

McHenry County (6.0% of district turnout, 63 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Fine 31.5%
Biss 27.7%
Abughazaleh 15.8%
Simmons 7.5%
Andrew 5.5%
Amiwala 5.4%
Huynh 3.5%

Top 10 Most Competitive Precincts

Precinct Fine Biss Abughazaleh Simmons Amiwala Andrew Huynh
Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote%
Niles Precinct 29 49.3 31.8 49.9 31.9 0.8 14.3 0.0 5.2 0.0 4.2 0.0 5.5 0.0 3.5
Northfield Precinct 20 49.1 31.8 50.1 32.0 0.8 14.3 0.0 5.1 0.0 4.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 3.4
Niles Precinct 36 39.6 25.1 37.3 24.8 22.1 22.0 0.4 8.2 0.4 8.3 0.1 5.5 0.1 3.3
Maine Precinct 40 42.3 26.0 39.4 25.6 17.5 21.4 0.5 9.0 0.2 6.1 0.1 5.5 0.0 3.4
Niles Precinct 21 42.0 25.5 39.1 25.1 17.8 20.9 0.5 8.8 0.4 8.1 0.1 5.5 0.0 3.4
Niles Precinct 41 42.1 25.6 39.0 25.1 17.8 20.9 0.5 8.8 0.4 8.0 0.1 5.5 0.0 3.4
Wheeling Precinct 16 42.1 26.0 38.9 25.5 18.2 21.4 0.4 9.1 0.1 6.1 0.1 5.5 0.0 3.4
Niles Precinct 48 42.3 25.6 39.0 25.1 17.7 20.9 0.5 8.9 0.4 8.0 0.1 5.4 0.0 3.3
Niles Precinct 62 42.3 25.6 38.9 25.1 17.9 20.9 0.5 8.8 0.3 8.1 0.1 5.4 0.1 3.4
Ward 49 Precinct 14 24.0 21.8 35.1 23.8 38.5 24.3 2.0 12.7 0.2 5.9 0.2 5.4 0.1 3.3

Green = Most likely winner | Orange = Second most likely